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MOGADISHU — The latest river-level data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO-SWALIM) system, dated October 13, 2026, show that the Shabelle River in Jowhar has risen to 5.37 metres, exceeding the medium-risk threshold of 5.00 metres and the high-risk threshold of 5.25 metres, while remaining below the bankfull level of 5.50 metres.
This represents an increase from the 4.70 metres recorded during the week ending October 7, when the river level was still below the high-risk threshold. Exceeding this threshold indicates rising flood risks around Jowhar, but does not necessarily mean that the river has reached bankfull level or that flooding has already occurred.
The development comes amid forecasts of moderate to heavy rainfall in parts of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands that feed the country’s rivers. The rainfall could contribute to further rises in water levels in the coming period, according to forecasts cited in reports on weather conditions and flood risks.
At other monitoring stations along the Shabelle and Juba rivers, data dated October 13 recorded levels of 3.98 metres in Beledweyne and 3.90 metres in Bulo Burte on the Shabelle, compared with 3.14 metres in Doolow and 4.12 metres in Luuq on the Juba. These readings remained below the risk thresholds set for each station, highlighting the importance of continued monitoring of water-level changes.
The situation in Jowhar is particularly significant because the town is located in a low-lying agricultural area vulnerable to the effects of rising Shabelle River levels. Flooding could pose risks to homes, farmland and residents’ livelihoods. The river’s crossing of the high-risk threshold calls for closer monitoring of water levels and stronger warnings for communities living near the river.
Recommended precautionary measures include updating preparedness and evacuation plans, inspecting river embankments and barriers, identifying safe higher ground, preparing essential supplies, strengthening early-warning systems and ensuring that warnings reach residents in a timely manner. Continued monitoring of updated official data remains essential to assess changing risks and take appropriate action.
