Immediate early action needed to prevent food crisis in the Greater Horn of Africa

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NAIROBI (SoOHA) – Around 10.7 million people are currently food insecure across Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and Karamoja region in Uganda. Although the food insecure population is lower than numbers observed during the drought of 2017 (15.3 million people), there is a high risk of a worsening situation due to forecasted rainfall deficits. The delay in the start of the March to June long rains, coupled with forecasted rainfall deficits in April are building on already dry conditions due to poor October to December rains over some parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. The poor performance of the past season’s short rains already led to below-average crop production and deteriorating pastures in some agro-pastoral and marginal mixed farming areas.

If the forecasted rainfall deficits materialize in April, this would lead to an atypical increase in food insecurity, likely to peak from June to October. Northeastern Kenya, south and central Somalia and south and eastern Ethiopia would likely experience a rapid decline in pastoral conditions. Dry conditions and high temperatures, between January and March, have already led to deteriorations in pastures and water availability in these areas, affecting livestock body conditions, reducing milk production, and leading to earlier-than-normal livestock migration. Crop production would also be below average in marginal agricultural areas of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia. This, along with the potential of lower than average production of key regional players such as Uganda and Tanzania, could cause price increases and reduce access of poor households to basic food supplies. Currently, despite poor agricultural and pastoral conditions, favorable market prices for key staple foods and livestock are facilitating food access for households. The good performance of last year’s long rains has also mitigated to some extent a further deterioration of conditions. Cereal prices remain largely below average while livestock prices are similar to or above average across most markets. Exceptions, however, are conflict-affected areas of southern Ethiopia.

Although a temporary relief is expected in pastoral areas during the second half of the rainy season (end of April – May), should rainfall deficits occur, the severity and size of the food insecure population might quickly rise afterwards. It is also likely to cause further increase in acute malnutrition of children under the age of five, which is already at concerning level.

The Food Security and Nutrition Working Group urges immediate and coordinated planning by governments, donors and all concerned stakeholders to respond to the potentially deteriorating food security and nutrition situation. The following actions should be urgently undertaken:  

Regular monitoring of developments using both remote sensing and joint field rapid assessments in worst-affected areas with particular emphasis on:

• Performance of the 2019 long/Gu rains;

• Crop production levels and cereal supplies (regional and national);

• Pasture, water, and livestock body conditions and atypical livestock movements;

• Prices of key cereals and livestock, as well as livestock-to-cereal and labor-to-cereal terms of trade;

• Food security outcomes (e.g. food consumption, livelihood change, nutrition and mortality);

• Integrated Management of Acute Malnutrition (Outpatient Therapeutic Programme and Supplementary Feeding Programme) exit outcomes/indicators

• Supply chain pipeline for Ready-to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF) and Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF)

In addition to monitoring, suggested actions at this time include:

• Activation of early actions focusing on strengthening rural agricultural livelihoods (e.g. animal feed, water, vaccinations, market support) in worst-affected areas to mitigate the likely food security impacts of an upcoming prolonged and severe lean season;

• Release of drought-related contingency funding to enable timely early actions and response;

• Preposition required goods for emergency response (e.g. food, nutrition support, water, medical supplies etc.) in advance of the expected peak in needs between June and October;

• Plan for recovery support to cropping households in advance of next cropping season (e.g. short/Deyr rains);

• Map current and planned interventions to ensure a more coordinated response and strengthen the existing food security information systems and coordination

• Strengthen programs that ensure peaceful livestock migration and reduce tensions between transhumant pastoralists and host communities in advance of likely atypical livestock movements.

Experience in delivering livelihood-based early actions in the Horn of Africa during the crisis of 2016/17, proved that 1 USD invested  in early actions saved up to 9 USD required for humanitarian response.

The Food Security and Nutrition Working Group will monitor closely the situation and provide climate updates on a 10-day basis, as well as monthly  overall food security updates.

Note: With the exception of Ethiopia, the food insecure population figure represents population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or higher. Sources of data are FSNAU (Somalia), the 2019 short rains assessment (Kenya), the 2019 Ethiopia HRP, and the most recent IPC Uganda analysis.

Source: FSNWG